I was on the East Coast for a business trip a few weeks ago and I made a point to visit New York City. The last time I visited Big Apple it was in late summer 2001, months after the burst of the Internet bubble and a few weeks before 9/11…
Seven years later life seemed to have come back to normal. I even took the time to watch Roger Federer play tennis at the US Open, crossing one line-item on my “bucket list”. The final game was actually postponed to Monday due to the heavy rain on Saturday. The following morning, the sky was blue and the air immaculate as if all cleansed out. I joined it seemed every New Yorker on the grass of Central Park to enjoy one sunny and worriless Sunday afternoon.
The next week-end, I was supposed to meet my old College roommate who now works at Lehman Brothers. I called him and he let me know it was not a good time: his company was in serious trouble – I had not read the newspapers! The chain of events that followed on Wall Street will remain in history…
I wondered today about the parallel between my two visits to New York City. Although purely coincidental, they both marked the end of an era. The Clinton years experienced an incredible period of economic growth driven by technology and an effort to control the Deficit, and also witnessed a certain loss in traditional American values in a country definitely opened to the world.
The end of Bush Jr’s two-terms is certainly marked by an America focused on its own interests as if scared of the dangers from the rest of the world, ready to defend its economy with large Government tax cuts and low interest rates fueling a housing bubble.
The fast economic recovery and the easy access to home mortgages almost made everybody forget the tangent problems of our time. Yet, the dead bodies of soldiers coming back from Irak every week did not allow us to do that completely. The number of covered caskets sharply resonates with the number of lost lives in the collapse of the Twin Towers.
Even more so, the financial crisis on Wall Street echoes the collapse of the tech bubble in Silicon Valley. The pendulum of life seems to have swung a full arc. The election in 2004 was a lost chance to change its course, but was it really possible? America did not seem to hear the voices from its long-time international Allies nor was the country ready for change. Voters are asking for it now.
But what change? The last eight years certainly taught us the world is a lot more complicated and finely interconnected than we wanted to believe. What can and what will the next Administration do? America has a limited capacity to control its course. A good example is Global Warming: it is the defining problem of our time, not only because of its potentially catastrophic consequences but also because it embodies the complexity of the challenges we are facing today in a global economy.
The Cap&Trade solution put forward at Kyoto lacks the involvement of the USA to have any major impact. America missed the boat again with the second Cap&Trade framework running from 2008 to 2012. As I reported in a previous post, a Bill was prepared at light speed in Congress but has been put “on the shelf” until the next President comes in office… Well, that could be one area of change. A few States led by California are working on numerous initiatives but the country needs a national Energy Policy and strong environmental commitments at the Federal level.
Someone asked me if the raising concern for the Environment will stop in the midst of the sudden economic crisis? Green ads are the latest trend on TV, but for how long… When people worry about their life savings and their homes, some could consider environmental concerns as luxury.
I don’t believe it will. The Green movement underlines the need to see problems in a more global perspective and the recent Green ads express clearly the necessity to look for economical solutions. One TV-ad shows an executive signing reluctantly on an internal Green initiative until he learns it will save 40% in operation costs.
The turning point in public awareness occurred last autumn when Al Gore and scientists received the Nobel Prize for their efforts to educate on Global Warming. It is interesting to note that it is a Prize sanctioned by a foreign institution that helped America look more closely at this dire problem. It is also clear that the strong interest in Green technologies was fueled by the constant increase in oil cost per barril, shattering the $100 psychological barrier.
Remaining the only true super-power, America is key to solving Global Warming with its strong ability to react and its sharp sense for entrepreneurship. For instance, California sees the Green revolution as a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and to create jobs. The Green movement is not about to die, quite to the contrary. The financial crisis showed the importance of a system with Government regulations and that should help Green policies.
